The Trump administration is trying to make its mark on space. It wants to direct goals to a more attainable short term objective so it can get some credit. I’m sure President Trump would argue it is like Kennedy’s dream a way to inspire America to further achievement and enthusiasm to space and science.

It is hard to believe when we remember that John Kennedy in early 1960’s asked the nation to commit to going to the moon. By 1969 a short 7 years later we had landed on the moon.

Today, 7 years passes like a wink of the eye and the space program seems to barely move. We have become sclerotic in spite of the fact our technology and knowledge is vastly more than back in the 1960’s.

US Space policy has careened from one year to the next. NASA doesn’t seem to have any idea what it is in existence to accomplish or do. Without goals it flounders from one mission to the next making no obvious advances barely keeping the lights on. It needs desperately a mission and strong leadership. Donald Trump may be it. Even though I don’t agree the moon should be the goal it is something we can use to get to the next goal.

When you go to one of NASA’s space centers you will inevitably see the Apollo spacecraft which is a testament to the ingenuity of man. Using 2 million parts and no computers, built entirely on what we would consider ancient technology now they actually went to the moon, landed, rode on the surface, came back multiple times without losing a single person (except of course on Apollo 1 landing pad fire.)

One of the big things that slows NASA down is the $4 billion it spends on the Space Station. This behemoth does virtually nothing for our space program but costs an arm and a leg and distracts a lot of people and energy just to maintain it.

I have said and believe NASA is actually an entertainment company. They produce incredible scientific engineering masterpieces that blow people’s minds. The cost of those demonstrations are kind of irrelevant. They aren’t running a space business. Each mission is in and of itself.

The space station is like a business and they don’t know how to run it. They should have shut it down because it produces almost no benefit and costs a fortune.

In my view we should lease the space station to Elon with a maintenance fee and let him run it.

NASA spends only about 1/4 of its budget on pure science. About 20% goes to Earth studies. The remaining budget goes to the space station and future space projects.

Rockets

NASA decided about 6 years ago to fund 2 projects to build the next set of rockets and ships to replace the Shuttle. It gave 2.6 billion to SpaceX for Falcon 9 and Dragon and 4.2 billion to Lockheed/Boeing to build the SLS and Orion.

Falcon 9 and Dragon are intended as resupply and support for the space station. SLS and Orion are intended to provide the craft to go to the moon and mars.

Elon Musk has used the money from NASA and additional money from other launches to build an incredibly efficient delivery system that is literally 1/10th the cost of SLS and 1/20th what a shuttle launch was. Even at that price SpaceX makes a huge profit on each flight. That is not break even price. It could be that SpaceX raw price is or will be 1/100th the cost of a shuttle and 1/50th the cost of an SLS flight.

The cost for these things is critical because going to the moon or mars becomes an exercise in moving mass from earth out of the gravity well of the earth. Thus a 20 or 50 times greater cost means you can lift 1/50th the amount of mass for the same cost. Since liftoff costs become the major cost it dramatically limits what you can do.

If you are an entertainment company and you are producing a couple high profile example missions that you use to justify your existence to continue to make entertainment then that might be okay but if you are trying to actually do something like run a station or man a moon or mars base then cost of mass to space becomes the most important variable.

Yet, NASA still doesn’t seem to get it. By producing the SLS and funding Boeing $4.2 trillion they are tacitly following the path they have followed for the last 50 years and building one off showboats that aren’t sustainable. That can’t accomplish anything really and are really expensive.

I have said before and believe that we should cancel SLS and maybe Orion. NASA won’t be happy because they like big rockets and the SLS was going to be a rocket like Apollo that made a lot of smoke and was really impressive explosive show. However, it is utterly ridiculously expensive and pointless. I was just at Kennedy and they were touting how SLS would need the same huge carriers that Apollo used and would use the giant vehicle assembly building. They were looking to return to the heyday of Apollo.

The Falcon 9 is a small rocket and can lift only 1/5th what a SLS or Apollo could into space. But 5 Falcon 9’s are still less than 1/2 the retail price and probably 1/10th the price of these non-reusable behemoths.

Elon hasn’t been sleeping. Falcon 9 is a huge success so he has built new rocket motors and new designs are coming for larger rockets. He has the Falcon Heavy which can lift 3 times a Falcon 9 into space and re-use all 3 rockets. He is also planning a raptor motor which will be dramatically more powerful than the tiny rockets (called Merlin’s) on the Falcon.

The new ship he is calling the “Starship” is just one of the designs he is working on. The Starship may fly this year. It is a stainless steel wonder. It will land like the Falcons back on its own feet after going into space.

It’s entire body is made to return. I don’t know precisely the lifting capacity but versions of it are supposed to be able to lift roughly as much as SLS or Apollo or the Shuttle ever did.

The Starship is Elon’s rocket to Mars. It is made with methane based engines that can be refueled from raw materials easily available on the moon or mars. It works in space or in “air” like on the Earth.

I prefer ( in my space plan here ) that we create a fully re-usable set of ion propelled spacecraft that go between the Earth and the moon or Mars continuously. To me the same reasoning that makes re-usable vehicles to get into space from the Earth makes sense to provide continuous delivery to these places at minimal cost.

However, given that this plan is not the current plan by any of the dreamers there is no doubt in my mind that Starship is the only rocket that makes sense for the US to bet on. We should go full bore behind Elon and cut the SLS.

NASA’s goals

Nasa’s goals are changing.

Based on Donald Trump’s new objectives NASA is projecting the return to the Moon by 2024. Supporting that moon base would be a new space station surrounding the moon.

First off, if we are going to build a new space station it should be a rotating space station like in 2001: A space Odyssey. I am not suggesting exactly like it but the concept is that it should support gravity by spinning so it is not a death trap.

To do that means it has to be larger and more massive. That means the SLS cannot be used to build it. If NASA builds a space station again with SLS it will be like the pathetic ISS that is almost useless. A space station that would be useful would have to have LOTS more power, more ability to build things. Lots more space (4-5 times as much as the current ISS.). Capacity to assemble things.

Such a space station would be useful and it would require significant mass but it could serve a huge purpose longer term. It should go around the Earth but if they really want it around the moon that is fine. Maybe someday we can build another one around the Earth too.

Key to doing this would be vastly less cost to get to space. I.e. Not the SLS.

Assuming we can’t change NASA’s new goal to go to the moon we could turn my plan into a mini-version of my existing plan for Mars. We could use the moon to test out mining equipment, power systems, habitats, building and production equipment.

It will delay getting to Mars but the experience will make when we get there make Mars happen much faster.

I will re-work my plans based on this change but the basics will be the same. It will probably stretch the first human arrival on Mars from 2033 to 2036.

There is some logic to going to the moon but the principal reason is clearly so we have a shorter term objective that will be a feather in Trump’s cap.

Robert Zubrin published an op-ed this morning that opposed the SLS like me. He also expressed a lot of skepticism about the moon projects but he acknowledged some benefits. He was almost totally against building a moon circling space station and didn’t seem to reflect on the rotating aspect maybe because he is opposed to it.

Zubrin believes like me in using robots to first get to Mars cheaply and develop lots of technology before we send the very expensive human cargo.

Elon wants to do more like NASA and just get to Mars and get boots on the ground before he gets too old maybe.

Elon projects that he needs to send 9 or 10 Transporters with equipment before the first human. I send 30 or 40 Transporter like flights before the first human. My plan is far more robust than Elon’s and I believe vastly more likely to work and be useful.

In either case Elon or Zubrin will need a lot of the technology that I discuss in my articles to build a colony on the moon or mars.

I can’t deny that having something on the moon by 2024 would be exciting even if I still believe the real goal should be Mars. As I describe in previous blogs I believe Mars is the ideal place for a colony. Not the moon but I can’t deny any movement in this direction is beneficial.

Zubrin is right as well as myself and Elon that the SLS is a giant mistake.

Let’s hope NASA and the Trump admin face the truth soon and terminate the program and accelerate Starship and if they want to build a new space station let’s make it a good one this time.